Announcement: New in the NSS Space Settlement Journal
Just published in the NSS Space Settlement Journal is a 90-page Critique of “A City on Mars” and Other Writings Opposing Space Settlement, by NSS Chief Operating Officer Dale Skran. Dale’s review of the book from Ad Astra 2nd Quarter 2024 is below.
Book Review
Category: Nonfiction
Reviewed by: Dale Skran
Title: A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?
Author: Zack and Kelly Weinersmith
Format: Hardcover/Paperback/Kindle
Pages: 448
Publisher: Penguin Press
Date: November 2023
Retail Price: $32.00/$22.00/$16.99
ISBN: 978-1984881724
Find this book
No City on Mars?
The ever-growing list of books aiming to slow a purported “rush to settle space” has gained a reluctant newcomer. I say reluctant because the first text in the book is:
“To the space-settlement community: You welcomed us and you shared your wisdom. Also, your data. We worry that many of you will be disappointed by some of our conclusions, but where we have diverged from your views, we haven’t diverged from your vision of a glorious human future.”
The book in question is A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through? by Zack and Kelly Weinersmith, who previously published the well-received book Soonish.
As part of the community that welcomed the Weinersmiths—Kelly attended the NSS Space Settlement Workshop in November 2021, and Rod Pyle, the Editor-in-Chief of the NSS magazine Ad Astra, is listed as having made a significant contribution to the book—I’m indeed a bit disappointed. But my greater disappointment is that NSS is apparently not making the case for space settlement as well as it should. A City on Mars points out a few holes in our arguments that we have left open, and it falls on us to close them. The Weinersmiths have done us a favor by pointing them out.
A full response to the points raised by the authors would require a book, or perhaps many books, so the scope of this review must be limited (but see my 90-page essay on the subject). This isn’t the best book to give someone to inspire them to build a human future in space. The overall tone is downbeat and the logic often less than airtight. My particular annoyance is the insistence of many authors, including the Weinersmiths, on spilling vast amounts of ink over how bad zero gravity is. Let’s admit it now—zero gravity is terrible for human bodies, and no serious advocate of space settlement suggests zero-gravity space settlements.
Although the Weinersmiths present a reasonably good history of the Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Agreement, they appear to lack a solid understanding of why the latter is the ultimate poison pill for space development and settlement. Having a U.N. agency manage space only makes sense if your goal is to prevent space development and settlement from occurring. Something like the Moon Agreement won’t result in a slowing of space development—it will result in the end of space development beyond Earth orbit.
Another misstep lies in an over-focus on Mars as a settlement destination combined with a dismissal of free-space settlements that appears to be based on the authors’ inability to understand how large objects might be constructed in space. Some NSS leaders have been focused on this topic for years, but the organization has not made a truly convincing argument to the public at large. Let’s hope the advent of A City on Mars will inspire engineers to rise to the challenge of demonstrating construction techniques for large, mile-sized space structures. I note in passing that although the section “Part II – Spome” is weak overall, the discussion about the Moon as a location for settlement does an excellent job of explaining why, although not the top destination for settlement, there’s a strong case that the path to our space future may be situated there.
It was with disappointment that I discovered that behind the Weinersmith’s anti-space solar power arguments was none other than Casey Handmer, who has been tilting against space solar power for at least the last decade. I have written a point-bypoint refutation of Handmer’s arguments on the NSS blog, but our failure to convince the Weinersmiths suggests just how far NSS has to go to persuade mainstream scientists that it’s feasible. Widespread skepticism about space solar power has resulted in essentially zero investment in a scientifically proven technology. Meanwhile, untold billions are funneled into fusion research with only incremental progress demonstrated to date.
On the other hand, A City on Mars is well worth reading for space advocates. There’s some excellent research here, and I learned a good bit. It should come as no surprise that the best chapters are the ones with a biology focus, given Kelly Weinersmith’s professional background as an expert on parasitic worms. “Part III—Pocket Edens” is also notable, and “Section V—The Paths Forward” has considerable food for thought on various attempts to get around the Outer Space Treaty and the possible pitfalls space settlements might face in becoming sovereign.
The authors’ greatest fear appears to be that the Artemis Accords will lead first to a gold rush on the Moon, and then to actual great-power conflict in space. They seem astonished at the popularity of the accords, and no doubt are even more concerned today as they have continued to gain signatures, including from all the major European space powers and much of Latin America and India. The Artemis Accords are a ray of hope in the bleak space law landscape, which as envisioned by the creators of the Moon Agreement will ensure we never leave Earth. This may be the greatest challenge to NSS—to continue to support the Artemis Accords while making the case that safety zones won’t lead to land-grabs or warfare. NSS has started the work of creating a framework for investor-friendly “benefits-sharing” based on resource reservation, and the Weinersmith’s critical analysis of this approach will be helpful in guiding our future work. So, let’s get to it. The space settlement future is waiting, but it will only happen by dint of our hard work today.
© 2024 Dale Skran
